Are the play-offs out of reach?

By Tim Sigsworth

When Tony Pulis was appointed as Middlesbrough’s manager in December 2017, few expected a finish in the top-two. Boro had spent nigh-on £50m in the summer yet languished underwhelmingly in 9th place; it was always going to be a stretch to jump at least seven places and overtake two of the three sides leading the way at the top of the table, Wolves, Cardiff, and Bristol City, when there was no chance of any permanent signings arriving in January.

However, it was expected that Pulis would get to know his expensively-assembled squad during the remainder of the season, achieve a play-off finish, strengthen in the summer and win automatic promotion in the 2018/19 season.

Things haven’t gone to plan.

With nine games of the regular Championship season to go, Boro sit in fifth place with a game in hand on the teams around them, one position higher than they did at this point last season.

However, hot on their heels are Aston Villa and Preston North End, two sides who are one point behind, have won four of their last five league games and have beaten Boro in the Teessiders’ last two games. Following closely behind them are Derby County, Bristol City, Sheffield Wednesday and Nottingham Forest.

Automatic promotion is out of the question. It’s not possible for Boro to make up a sixteen-point gap in nine games. What is possible, however, is for Boro to finish outside of the play-offs.

With just four points separating fifth and eleventh, the race for the play-offs is tight. With just seven points from a possible eighteen in their last six games, Boro’s promotion chances hang ever so delicately in the balance. With the likes of Norwich City, Bristol City, Swansea City, Hull City, Stoke City and Nottingham Forest still to play, is a play-off finish out of reach?

Well, regardless of current form and who we have still to play, Boro remain in a play-off position. Admittedly by a small margin, but the opportunity is still there to shake off our poor form and get back to winning ways.

Moreover, the international break has come at probably the best possible time. It offers a chance to Pulis and his players to rest, refocus and re-energise. Two of our most influential players, John Obi Mikel and Lewis Wing, have looked a tad jaded in the last few games, especially against Villa. The break, then, should benefit them massively.

The break also allows Pulis and his staff to mark a line in the sand and work on weaknesses.

Let’s face it, Boro do not need a short-term tactical overhaul. They dominated Preston for an hour before Ayala’s wrongful dismissal and bossed Brentford after opting to go for two-up-top, a high press, a dynamic midfield and advanced wing-backs. There were more than enough chances in both of those games to seal a comfortable victory and that should be a sign of encouragement, especially in comparison to the no-show drubbing at Villa when Pulis reverted to type and opted for a rigid 5-4-1.

The Norwich game may be a step too far for the more adventurous system given the Canaries’ prowess in front of goal but, with a little bit of tactical tweaking and the correct in-game substitutions, it could help overcome Boro’s attacking inaccuracy and defensive uncertainty for the run-in.

Morale, in and of itself, will be another crucial factor in Boro’s fight to achieve a play-off place. There’s no doubt that the 3-0 drubbing away at Villa will have been one of the lowest moments of the season for the squad. Boro hadn’t lost two in a row this season until the Preston game, and then extended that unwanted record still further in a slapstick display at Villa Park.

Pulis has to pick his players up off the ground and ready them for the biggest nine games of his and, in most cases, their Boro careers. He has to make them believe that a play-off finish and a play-off winners’ medal are achievable ambitions. There are no two ways about it.

Without those winners’ medals, lucrative contracts and futures in the Premier League will be thrown out of the window. The players’ futures will be far from certain when Boro’s pre-tax revenues drop to £23m next summer if promotion isn’t achieved. Let’s not beat around the bush, few of them have performed well enough this season to warrant an extended period at the club, apart from the likes of Darren Randolph, Ryan Shotton, Dael Fry, Lewis Wing and John Obi Mikel.

Us supporters have to feel this pressure too. If we don’t achieve promotion, there will be no big name signings, it’s likely that we’ll have to sell to buy and there’s no guarantee that the aforementioned fantastic five will stay at the club much longer. It’s paramount that we buy into Pulis, the team and the club for this crucial period, no matter how tough it has been this season and no matter how tough our run-in may appear in the context of current form.

The club are trying their best to get us on side. They’re attempting, whether you like or loathe the Captain James Cook Stadium, to drum up quasi-patriotic support ahead of the Norwich game this Saturday. You may point towards season ticket price increases as a counter-point but a minor increase is absolutely necessary when revenues are set to halve next summer if promotion isn’t achieved.

Vocal, vociferous support goes hand-in-hand with team morale. If players see that fans are on their side, it gives them confidence to take a risk, beat their man, find the bottom corner. Likewise, when fans see that their men in red are committed and prepared to give their all for the shirt, they’ll lend their full support. It’s a symbiotic relationship which is dependent on both parties.

I’m not trying to argue that supporters being prepared to support is the sole factor governing whether Boro will achieve a play-off place or not. Tactics, substitutions, morale and luck will also play their part, arguably, especially in the case of the latter, to a greater degree.

What I’m arguing is that it is a significant factor and the most significant factor which supporters have the ability to influence. Calls for Pulis’ head, to change tactics and to throw the kids in help no one in the situation we’re in and are not likely to be heeded. This season has proven that time and time again.

No matter how distant they may seem, the play-offs and promotion are still there to be achieved. We have to get behind the lads, lend them our full support and channel the spirit of Teesside, the spirit of ’86, the spirit of – dare I say it – 2014/15 and 2015/16.